Recent polling consistently places Iván Cepeda in first place with 34-44 percent support but well short of an outright majority, while Abelardo de la Espriella maintains a modest edge over Paloma Valencia for second ahead of the May 31 first round. Traders price the de la Espriella-Cepeda pairing at 85.5 percent because de la Espriella’s insurgent right-wing appeal and coalition infrastructure have held firm despite late-April and mid-May surveys showing a tight race for the runoff spot. Valencia’s center-right base and primary victory provide a credible alternative that accounts for her 6.5 percent probability, yet no major shift has altered the current ordering. An outright first-round victory remains unlikely at 7.4 percent given the fragmented field and persistent polarization.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoColombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 85%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 10%
1st Round Outright Winner 7.3%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%
$11,639 Vol.
$11,639 Vol.
31 may 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
85%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
10%
1st Round Outright Winner
7%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
<1%
Other
<1%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 85%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 10%
1st Round Outright Winner 7.3%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%
$11,639 Vol.
$11,639 Vol.
31 may 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
$4,252 Vol.
85%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
$2,488 Vol.
10%
1st Round Outright Winner
$2,102 Vol.
7%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
$1,534 Vol.
<1%
Other
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polling consistently places Iván Cepeda in first place with 34-44 percent support but well short of an outright majority, while Abelardo de la Espriella maintains a modest edge over Paloma Valencia for second ahead of the May 31 first round. Traders price the de la Espriella-Cepeda pairing at 85.5 percent because de la Espriella’s insurgent right-wing appeal and coalition infrastructure have held firm despite late-April and mid-May surveys showing a tight race for the runoff spot. Valencia’s center-right base and primary victory provide a credible alternative that accounts for her 6.5 percent probability, yet no major shift has altered the current ordering. An outright first-round victory remains unlikely at 7.4 percent given the fragmented field and persistent polarization.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volumen
$11,639Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polling consistently places Iván Cepeda in first place with 34-44 percent support but well short of an outright majority, while Abelardo de la Espriella maintains a modest edge over Paloma Valencia for second ahead of the May 31 first round. Traders price the de la Espriella-Cepeda pairing at 85.5 percent because de la Espriella’s insurgent right-wing appeal and coalition infrastructure have held firm despite late-April and mid-May surveys showing a tight race for the runoff spot. Valencia’s center-right base and primary victory provide a credible alternative that accounts for her 6.5 percent probability, yet no major shift has altered the current ordering. An outright first-round victory remains unlikely at 7.4 percent given the fragmented field and persistent polarization.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$11,639Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling consistently places Iván Cepeda in first place with 34-44 percent support but well short of an outright majority, while Abelardo de la Espriella maintains a modest edge over Paloma Valencia for second ahead of the May 31 first round. Traders price the de la Espriella-Cepeda pairing at 85.5 percent because de la Espriella’s insurgent right-wing appeal and coalition infrastructure have held firm despite late-April and mid-May surveys showing a tight race for the runoff spot. Valencia’s center-right base and primary victory provide a credible alternative that accounts for her 6.5 percent probability, yet no major shift has altered the current ordering. An outright first-round victory remains unlikely at 7.4 percent given the fragmented field and persistent polarization.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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