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icon for Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Política·Recompensas 20, 4.5, 50

Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?

icon for Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Política·Recompensas 20, 4.5, 50

Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 79%

1st Round Outright Winner 11.1%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 10%

Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 79%

1st Round Outright Winner 11.1%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 10%

Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro

$3,517 Vol.

79%

1st Round Outright Winner

$1,811 Vol.

11%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro

$2,278 Vol.

10%

Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia

$1,304 Vol.

<1%

Other

$1,031 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls show leftist candidate Iván Cepeda leading with 35–44% but falling short of an outright first-round majority, while right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella holds a narrow edge over center-right senator Paloma Valencia in the contest for second place. This positioning has consolidated trader consensus around a Cepeda–de la Espriella runoff on June 21. De la Espriella’s surge in mid-May surveys, including AtlasIntel’s 29.4% reading, reflects his appeal among hardline conservative voters, though recent sexist remarks have drawn criticism that could narrow his advantage. Valencia benefits from institutional backing within the Centro Democrático but trails in turnout momentum. With the May 31 vote two weeks away and roughly 15% undecided voters remaining, any late consolidation among anti-Cepeda blocs could still shift the second-place outcome.

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.

If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$9,942
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls show leftist candidate Iván Cepeda leading with 35–44% but falling short of an outright first-round majority, while right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella holds a narrow edge over center-right senator Paloma Valencia in the contest for second place. This positioning has consolidated trader consensus around a Cepeda–de la Espriella runoff on June 21. De la Espriella’s surge in mid-May surveys, including AtlasIntel’s 29.4% reading, reflects his appeal among hardline conservative voters, though recent sexist remarks have drawn criticism that could narrow his advantage. Valencia benefits from institutional backing within the Centro Democrático but trails in turnout momentum. With the May 31 vote two weeks away and roughly 15% undecided voters remaining, any late consolidation among anti-Cepeda blocs could still shift the second-place outcome.

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.

If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$9,942
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro" con 79%, seguido de "1st Round Outright Winner" con 11%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 79¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 79% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el May 13, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" es "Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro" con 79%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 79% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1st Round Outright Winner" con 11%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.