Iván Cepeda maintains a consistent lead in recent polls ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round vote, drawing support from President Gustavo Petro’s base while remaining well short of an outright majority. Conservative voters remain divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, with multiple surveys from April and mid-May showing de la Espriella holding a narrow edge or statistical tie for second place. This split has kept the probability of a Cepeda–de la Espriella runoff elevated among traders, as Valencia’s gains have not yet displaced her rival in most head-to-head polling. A first-round majority for any candidate appears unlikely, making the outcome hinge on which conservative consolidates enough support in the final weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoColombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 86%
1st Round Outright Winner 7.1%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 6%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%
$11,609 Vol.
$11,609 Vol.
31 may 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
86%
1st Round Outright Winner
7%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
6%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
<1%
Other
<1%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 86%
1st Round Outright Winner 7.1%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 6%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%
$11,609 Vol.
$11,609 Vol.
31 may 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
$4,246 Vol.
86%
1st Round Outright Winner
$2,079 Vol.
7%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
$2,488 Vol.
6%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
$1,534 Vol.
<1%
Other
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Iván Cepeda maintains a consistent lead in recent polls ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round vote, drawing support from President Gustavo Petro’s base while remaining well short of an outright majority. Conservative voters remain divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, with multiple surveys from April and mid-May showing de la Espriella holding a narrow edge or statistical tie for second place. This split has kept the probability of a Cepeda–de la Espriella runoff elevated among traders, as Valencia’s gains have not yet displaced her rival in most head-to-head polling. A first-round majority for any candidate appears unlikely, making the outcome hinge on which conservative consolidates enough support in the final weeks.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volumen
$11,609Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Iván Cepeda maintains a consistent lead in recent polls ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round vote, drawing support from President Gustavo Petro’s base while remaining well short of an outright majority. Conservative voters remain divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, with multiple surveys from April and mid-May showing de la Espriella holding a narrow edge or statistical tie for second place. This split has kept the probability of a Cepeda–de la Espriella runoff elevated among traders, as Valencia’s gains have not yet displaced her rival in most head-to-head polling. A first-round majority for any candidate appears unlikely, making the outcome hinge on which conservative consolidates enough support in the final weeks.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$11,609Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iván Cepeda maintains a consistent lead in recent polls ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round vote, drawing support from President Gustavo Petro’s base while remaining well short of an outright majority. Conservative voters remain divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, with multiple surveys from April and mid-May showing de la Espriella holding a narrow edge or statistical tie for second place. This split has kept the probability of a Cepeda–de la Espriella runoff elevated among traders, as Valencia’s gains have not yet displaced her rival in most head-to-head polling. A first-round majority for any candidate appears unlikely, making the outcome hinge on which conservative consolidates enough support in the final weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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