Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 11 to May 13, 2026, driven by the live tracker logging exactly 46 posts as of 7:21 AM ET on May 13 after two full days at a subdued daily average of 23—well below his historical peaks of 60+ amid lulls in major news cycles. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects his recent quieter phase, with no viral controversies, Tesla announcements, or political dust-ups sparking the high-volume sprees that define his pop culture posting habits. An upset into higher bins would require an abrupt surge, like a breaking SpaceX event or public feud, but with hours left in the window and steady pace, traders see minimal risk of breaching 64.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,960,194 Vol.
$1,960,194 Vol.
13 may 2026
<40
No
40-64
Yes
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,960,194 Vol.
$1,960,194 Vol.
13 may 2026
<40
$314,887 Vol.
No
40-64
$328,915 Vol.
Yes
65-89
$445,687 Vol.
No
90-114
$534,237 Vol.
No
115-139
$169,525 Vol.
No
140-164
$65,957 Vol.
No
165-189
$44,475 Vol.
No
190-214
$22,783 Vol.
No
215-239
$17,852 Vol.
No
240+
$15,875 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 11 to May 13, 2026, driven by the live tracker logging exactly 46 posts as of 7:21 AM ET on May 13 after two full days at a subdued daily average of 23—well below his historical peaks of 60+ amid lulls in major news cycles. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects his recent quieter phase, with no viral controversies, Tesla announcements, or political dust-ups sparking the high-volume sprees that define his pop culture posting habits. An upset into higher bins would require an abrupt surge, like a breaking SpaceX event or public feud, but with hours left in the window and steady pace, traders see minimal risk of breaching 64.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: May 9, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,960,194Fecha de finalización
13 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 9, 2026, 12:48 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 11 to May 13, 2026, driven by the live tracker logging exactly 46 posts as of 7:21 AM ET on May 13 after two full days at a subdued daily average of 23—well below his historical peaks of 60+ amid lulls in major news cycles. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects his recent quieter phase, with no viral controversies, Tesla announcements, or political dust-ups sparking the high-volume sprees that define his pop culture posting habits. An upset into higher bins would require an abrupt surge, like a breaking SpaceX event or public feud, but with hours left in the window and steady pace, traders see minimal risk of breaching 64.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$1,960,194Fecha de finalización
13 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 9, 2026, 12:48 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 11 to May 13, 2026, driven by the live tracker logging exactly 46 posts as of 7:21 AM ET on May 13 after two full days at a subdued daily average of 23—well below his historical peaks of 60+ amid lulls in major news cycles. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects his recent quieter phase, with no viral controversies, Tesla announcements, or political dust-ups sparking the high-volume sprees that define his pop culture posting habits. An upset into higher bins would require an abrupt surge, like a breaking SpaceX event or public feud, but with hours left in the window and steady pace, traders see minimal risk of breaching 64.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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