Bulgaria’s commanding rehearsal showings and decisive victories in both the Eurovision Audience Poll and press poll have propelled the country to an overwhelming market-implied probability of 64.1% as winner of the Second Semi-Final. Dara’s high-energy “Bangaranga” delivered standout staging and broad appeal that resonated with both jury and televote blocs, outpacing Romania, Australia, and the rest of the field in recent tracking. This momentum aligns with historical patterns where early frontrunners in semi-finals consolidate support ahead of the May 14 Vienna showdown, though late shifts in voting blocs or surprise qualifiers could still compress the gap for lower-priced entrants. Traders are now watching the official qualifier announcement and final tally for confirmation.