Google I/O 2026, scheduled to open May 19, stands as the dominant catalyst behind the overwhelming market consensus on a Gemini 3.2 release that day. Leaks of the lightweight Flash variant have already surfaced in iOS app builds, AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks, with early testers noting strong coding performance and sub-200-millisecond latencies that align with Google’s reported distillation techniques. These signals position the model as a cost-efficient competitor to GPT-5.5 while trailing heavier frontier systems, consistent with Google’s pattern of unveiling incremental large language model updates at its annual developer event. The 90.5% implied probability reflects traders’ assessment of this historical timing, though a last-minute technical delay or shift to May 20 could still alter the outcome if the keynote schedule changes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay 19 91%
May 18 4.5%
May 20 4.0%
May 22 1.3%
$308,493 Vol.
$308,493 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
91%
May 20
4%
May 21
<1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 91%
May 18 4.5%
May 20 4.0%
May 22 1.3%
$308,493 Vol.
$308,493 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 16
$7,407 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$12,543 Vol.
<1%
May 18
$37,925 Vol.
4%
May 19
$111,550 Vol.
91%
May 20
$16,954 Vol.
4%
May 21
$10,529 Vol.
<1%
May 22
$12,141 Vol.
1%
May 23
$4,089 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$4,892 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$3,317 Vol.
<1%
May 26
$3,933 Vol.
<1%
May 27
$4,378 Vol.
<1%
May 28
$3,026 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$2,392 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$6,223 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$5,574 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$20,053 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google I/O 2026, scheduled to open May 19, stands as the dominant catalyst behind the overwhelming market consensus on a Gemini 3.2 release that day. Leaks of the lightweight Flash variant have already surfaced in iOS app builds, AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks, with early testers noting strong coding performance and sub-200-millisecond latencies that align with Google’s reported distillation techniques. These signals position the model as a cost-efficient competitor to GPT-5.5 while trailing heavier frontier systems, consistent with Google’s pattern of unveiling incremental large language model updates at its annual developer event. The 90.5% implied probability reflects traders’ assessment of this historical timing, though a last-minute technical delay or shift to May 20 could still alter the outcome if the keynote schedule changes.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volumen
$308,493Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google I/O 2026, scheduled to open May 19, stands as the dominant catalyst behind the overwhelming market consensus on a Gemini 3.2 release that day. Leaks of the lightweight Flash variant have already surfaced in iOS app builds, AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks, with early testers noting strong coding performance and sub-200-millisecond latencies that align with Google’s reported distillation techniques. These signals position the model as a cost-efficient competitor to GPT-5.5 while trailing heavier frontier systems, consistent with Google’s pattern of unveiling incremental large language model updates at its annual developer event. The 90.5% implied probability reflects traders’ assessment of this historical timing, though a last-minute technical delay or shift to May 20 could still alter the outcome if the keynote schedule changes.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$308,493Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google I/O 2026, scheduled to open May 19, stands as the dominant catalyst behind the overwhelming market consensus on a Gemini 3.2 release that day. Leaks of the lightweight Flash variant have already surfaced in iOS app builds, AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks, with early testers noting strong coding performance and sub-200-millisecond latencies that align with Google’s reported distillation techniques. These signals position the model as a cost-efficient competitor to GPT-5.5 while trailing heavier frontier systems, consistent with Google’s pattern of unveiling incremental large language model updates at its annual developer event. The 90.5% implied probability reflects traders’ assessment of this historical timing, though a last-minute technical delay or shift to May 20 could still alter the outcome if the keynote schedule changes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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