Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 2 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 2 de agosto?
76-77°F 43%
74-75°F 31%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 7%
NUEVO
$10,415 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,415 Vol.
2 ago 2026
65°F o menos
1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
43%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
1%
84°F o más
<1%
76-77°F 43%
74-75°F 31%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 7%
NUEVO
$10,415 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,415 Vol.
2 ago 2026
65°F o menos
$490 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$476 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$614 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$386 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$317 Vol.
7%
74-75°F
$1,932 Vol.
31%
76-77°F
$3,651 Vol.
43%
78-79°F
$318 Vol.
18%
80-81°F
$1,740 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$129 Vol.
1%
84°F o más
$361 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$10,415Fecha de finalización
2 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$10,415Fecha de finalización
2 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes