Short-range ensemble forecasts from global models show moderate spread in precipitation timing over Guangzhou on August 21, with some runs indicating scattered showers that could limit daytime heating to 32–33°C while others favor mostly dry conditions supporting peaks of 34–35°C under subtropical high pressure. Typical August climatology places mean highs near 33°C with high humidity and frequent convective activity; current model consensus leans toward light rain moderating the maximum, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–34°C. Updated guidance from regional meteorological agencies and the next model cycle will likely narrow resolution criteria before the daily maximum is recorded.