Recent thundery showers driven by a broad low-pressure trough and active southerly airstream over the Pearl River Estuary have moderated Hong Kong’s daytime heating, capping expected highs near 28–29 °C on August 3. Persistent cloud cover and scattered heavy rainfall reduce incoming solar radiation while enhancing evaporative cooling, shifting the distribution away from the seasonal 32 °C August average. Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble model runs continue to highlight uncertainty in shower timing and intensity, which directly influences whether the peak reaches 29 °C or remains at 28 °C. Updated short-range forecasts and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.