Recent short-range model runs from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS consensus place Madrid’s September 5 maximum near 36–38 °C, with afternoon temperatures peaking under partly to mostly cloudy skies and light southeasterly flow. This narrow range, together with the historical September 5 record of 37.4 °C, explains why traders assign 80 % combined probability to 37 °C or 38 °C while keeping 39 °C at 21 %. Key differentiating variables are the timing and extent of cloud cover, which can suppress the peak by 1–2 °C, and any late-day wind shift that could briefly enhance mixing. Updated model guidance issued in the last 24–48 hours has shown only minor cooling, leaving the market-implied odds closely aligned with the current forecast envelope.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 5 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 5 de septiembre?
38°C 44%
37°C 34%
39°C 21%
40°C 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 sep 2026
33°C o menos
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
6%
37°C
34%
38°C
44%
39°C
21%
40°C
6%
41°C
5%
42°C
1%
43°C o más
1%
38°C 44%
37°C 34%
39°C 21%
40°C 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 sep 2026
33°C o menos
$5 Vol.
1%
34°C
$15 Vol.
1%
35°C
$313 Vol.
4%
36°C
$153 Vol.
6%
37°C
$180 Vol.
34%
38°C
$157 Vol.
44%
39°C
$296 Vol.
21%
40°C
$0 Vol.
6%
41°C
$0 Vol.
5%
42°C
$20 Vol.
1%
43°C o más
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model runs from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS consensus place Madrid’s September 5 maximum near 36–38 °C, with afternoon temperatures peaking under partly to mostly cloudy skies and light southeasterly flow. This narrow range, together with the historical September 5 record of 37.4 °C, explains why traders assign 80 % combined probability to 37 °C or 38 °C while keeping 39 °C at 21 %. Key differentiating variables are the timing and extent of cloud cover, which can suppress the peak by 1–2 °C, and any late-day wind shift that could briefly enhance mixing. Updated model guidance issued in the last 24–48 hours has shown only minor cooling, leaving the market-implied odds closely aligned with the current forecast envelope.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$1,155Fecha de finalización
5 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model runs from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS consensus place Madrid’s September 5 maximum near 36–38 °C, with afternoon temperatures peaking under partly to mostly cloudy skies and light southeasterly flow. This narrow range, together with the historical September 5 record of 37.4 °C, explains why traders assign 80 % combined probability to 37 °C or 38 °C while keeping 39 °C at 21 %. Key differentiating variables are the timing and extent of cloud cover, which can suppress the peak by 1–2 °C, and any late-day wind shift that could briefly enhance mixing. Updated model guidance issued in the last 24–48 hours has shown only minor cooling, leaving the market-implied odds closely aligned with the current forecast envelope.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,155Fecha de finalización
5 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model runs from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS consensus place Madrid’s September 5 maximum near 36–38 °C, with afternoon temperatures peaking under partly to mostly cloudy skies and light southeasterly flow. This narrow range, together with the historical September 5 record of 37.4 °C, explains why traders assign 80 % combined probability to 37 °C or 38 °C while keeping 39 °C at 21 %. Key differentiating variables are the timing and extent of cloud cover, which can suppress the peak by 1–2 °C, and any late-day wind shift that could briefly enhance mixing. Updated model guidance issued in the last 24–48 hours has shown only minor cooling, leaving the market-implied odds closely aligned with the current forecast envelope.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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