President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado15s+ 56%
10–15s 21%
6–10 s 16%
2–6s 5.4%
$262,187 Vol.
$262,187 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sin apretón de manos
4%
<2s
1%
2–6s
5%
6–10 s
16%
10–15s
21%
15s+
56%
Solo fotografiados
2%
15s+ 56%
10–15s 21%
6–10 s 16%
2–6s 5.4%
$262,187 Vol.
$262,187 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sin apretón de manos
$54,498 Vol.
4%
<2s
$40,847 Vol.
1%
2–6s
$42,230 Vol.
5%
6–10 s
$20,318 Vol.
16%
10–15s
$20,373 Vol.
21%
15s+
$48,320 Vol.
56%
Solo fotografiados
$41,529 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
Mercado abierto: Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Volumen
$262,187Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
Volumen
$262,187Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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