Official USGS seismic monitoring data recorded three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater during the August 10–16 window, aligning with typical global rates of roughly one to two such events per week and driving the near-certain market consensus on three. Model runs and aftershock sequences from regional fault systems showed no additional qualifying events, while magnitude revisions remain unlikely given verified instrumental readings. A shift to four would require either an unreported late-week event above the threshold or official reclassification of a borderline quake, both low-probability outcomes absent new observational evidence from global networks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 10 al 16 de agosto?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 10 al 16 de agosto?
$38,514 Vol.
$38,514 Vol.
10 ago 2026
3
100%
4
<1%
$38,514 Vol.
$38,514 Vol.
10 ago 2026
3
$6,762 Vol.
100%
4
$2,289 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Official USGS seismic monitoring data recorded three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater during the August 10–16 window, aligning with typical global rates of roughly one to two such events per week and driving the near-certain market consensus on three. Model runs and aftershock sequences from regional fault systems showed no additional qualifying events, while magnitude revisions remain unlikely given verified instrumental readings. A shift to four would require either an unreported late-week event above the threshold or official reclassification of a borderline quake, both low-probability outcomes absent new observational evidence from global networks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volumen
$38,514Fecha de finalización
17 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Official USGS seismic monitoring data recorded three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater during the August 10–16 window, aligning with typical global rates of roughly one to two such events per week and driving the near-certain market consensus on three. Model runs and aftershock sequences from regional fault systems showed no additional qualifying events, while magnitude revisions remain unlikely given verified instrumental readings. A shift to four would require either an unreported late-week event above the threshold or official reclassification of a borderline quake, both low-probability outcomes absent new observational evidence from global networks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$38,514Fecha de finalización
17 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Official USGS seismic monitoring data recorded three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater during the August 10–16 window, aligning with typical global rates of roughly one to two such events per week and driving the near-certain market consensus on three. Model runs and aftershock sequences from regional fault systems showed no additional qualifying events, while magnitude revisions remain unlikely given verified instrumental readings. A shift to four would require either an unreported late-week event above the threshold or official reclassification of a borderline quake, both low-probability outcomes absent new observational evidence from global networks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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