Ongoing hostilities, Hezbollah’s rejection of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework, and Lebanese officials’ repeated statements that normalization remains off the table without a wider regional accord sustain the 92.5% trader consensus against diplomatic relations before 2027. The framework outlined Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, and Hezbollah disarmament under international oversight, yet the group declared the deal invalid and maintained threats of disruption. Internal Lebanese divisions, Hezbollah’s entrenched military presence, and constitutional barriers further constrain any shift toward full diplomatic ties or economic cooperation by December 31, 2026. Recent rounds of U.S.-mediated security talks have focused on ceasefire implementation and border issues rather than normalization, reinforcing the market’s assessment of significant structural obstacles.