Ongoing US-brokered talks in Washington have produced a 45-day extension of the April 2026 ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, with further political negotiations scheduled for early June and a security track set for late May. These discussions focus on Hezbollah disarmament, border demarcation, and enforcement of the truce rather than formal diplomatic recognition or normalized relations. Persistent violations, including recent Israeli strikes, underscore the fragile security environment and Lebanese domestic constraints on advancing beyond ceasefires. Traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to no normalization before 2027, reflecting the emphasis on incremental security steps over comprehensive peace agreements amid longstanding regional tensions.