Trader consensus in the Japan GDP growth market for Q1 2026 remains tightly contested between the 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% bins, reflecting economist forecasts clustered around a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter expansion ahead of the Cabinet Office’s May 19 preliminary release. Recent surveys from the Japan Center for Economic Research and private institutions point to annualized growth near 1.56–1.8%, driven by firm personal consumption supported by wage gains and energy subsidies, alongside recovering exports amid steady semiconductor demand. Middle East tensions have so far exerted limited downward pressure on Q1 figures, though any prolonged supply disruption could weigh on later quarters. This narrow band underscores the data’s sensitivity to final consumption and capital expenditure readings, with limited historical precedent for sharp last-minute revisions in similar releases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0.0–0.2% 3.6%
-0,3– -0,1% 2.5%
1,2%+ 1.9%
≤-0.4% 1.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 may 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0,3– -0,1%
2%
0.0–0.2%
4%
0,3–0,5%
47%
0,6–0,8%
43%
0,9–1,1%
30%
1,2%+
2%
0.0–0.2% 3.6%
-0,3– -0,1% 2.5%
1,2%+ 1.9%
≤-0.4% 1.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 may 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,317 Vol.
1%
-0,3– -0,1%
$1,343 Vol.
2%
0.0–0.2%
$1,357 Vol.
4%
0,3–0,5%
$911 Vol.
47%
0,6–0,8%
$586 Vol.
43%
0,9–1,1%
$792 Vol.
30%
1,2%+
$3,375 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus in the Japan GDP growth market for Q1 2026 remains tightly contested between the 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% bins, reflecting economist forecasts clustered around a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter expansion ahead of the Cabinet Office’s May 19 preliminary release. Recent surveys from the Japan Center for Economic Research and private institutions point to annualized growth near 1.56–1.8%, driven by firm personal consumption supported by wage gains and energy subsidies, alongside recovering exports amid steady semiconductor demand. Middle East tensions have so far exerted limited downward pressure on Q1 figures, though any prolonged supply disruption could weigh on later quarters. This narrow band underscores the data’s sensitivity to final consumption and capital expenditure readings, with limited historical precedent for sharp last-minute revisions in similar releases.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volumen
$9,682Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus in the Japan GDP growth market for Q1 2026 remains tightly contested between the 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% bins, reflecting economist forecasts clustered around a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter expansion ahead of the Cabinet Office’s May 19 preliminary release. Recent surveys from the Japan Center for Economic Research and private institutions point to annualized growth near 1.56–1.8%, driven by firm personal consumption supported by wage gains and energy subsidies, alongside recovering exports amid steady semiconductor demand. Middle East tensions have so far exerted limited downward pressure on Q1 figures, though any prolonged supply disruption could weigh on later quarters. This narrow band underscores the data’s sensitivity to final consumption and capital expenditure readings, with limited historical precedent for sharp last-minute revisions in similar releases.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$9,682Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the Japan GDP growth market for Q1 2026 remains tightly contested between the 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% bins, reflecting economist forecasts clustered around a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter expansion ahead of the Cabinet Office’s May 19 preliminary release. Recent surveys from the Japan Center for Economic Research and private institutions point to annualized growth near 1.56–1.8%, driven by firm personal consumption supported by wage gains and energy subsidies, alongside recovering exports amid steady semiconductor demand. Middle East tensions have so far exerted limited downward pressure on Q1 figures, though any prolonged supply disruption could weigh on later quarters. This narrow band underscores the data’s sensitivity to final consumption and capital expenditure readings, with limited historical precedent for sharp last-minute revisions in similar releases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes