Recent semiconductor export strength and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% year-over-year Q1 2026 GDP print have anchored trader-implied odds for Q2 growth in the 3.5–4.4% range, where the two leading buckets now hold a combined 97% probability. April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, continues to support upward revisions from institutions such as JPMorgan and KDI, which now project full-year growth near 2.5–3.0%. Countervailing pressures include subdued April employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and lingering risks from U.S. tariffs and Middle East energy disruptions that could weigh on domestic consumption and manufacturing momentum. Upcoming May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the narrow spread between the 3.5–3.9% and 4.0–4.4% outcomes ahead of the July advance release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 38.9%
2.0–2.4% 20%
<1.5% 16.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 jul 2026
<1.5%
16%
1.5–1.9%
23%
2.0–2.4%
20%
2.5–2.9%
39%
3.0–3.4%
24%
3.5–3.9%
49%
4.0–4.4%
51%
4.5%+
25%
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 38.9%
2.0–2.4% 20%
<1.5% 16.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 jul 2026
<1.5%
$278 Vol.
16%
1.5–1.9%
$184 Vol.
23%
2.0–2.4%
$351 Vol.
20%
2.5–2.9%
$161 Vol.
39%
3.0–3.4%
$154 Vol.
24%
3.5–3.9%
$319 Vol.
49%
4.0–4.4%
$276 Vol.
51%
4.5%+
$238 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Recent semiconductor export strength and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% year-over-year Q1 2026 GDP print have anchored trader-implied odds for Q2 growth in the 3.5–4.4% range, where the two leading buckets now hold a combined 97% probability. April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, continues to support upward revisions from institutions such as JPMorgan and KDI, which now project full-year growth near 2.5–3.0%. Countervailing pressures include subdued April employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and lingering risks from U.S. tariffs and Middle East energy disruptions that could weigh on domestic consumption and manufacturing momentum. Upcoming May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the narrow spread between the 3.5–3.9% and 4.0–4.4% outcomes ahead of the July advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Mercado abierto: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volumen
$1,961Fecha de finalización
23 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Recent semiconductor export strength and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% year-over-year Q1 2026 GDP print have anchored trader-implied odds for Q2 growth in the 3.5–4.4% range, where the two leading buckets now hold a combined 97% probability. April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, continues to support upward revisions from institutions such as JPMorgan and KDI, which now project full-year growth near 2.5–3.0%. Countervailing pressures include subdued April employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and lingering risks from U.S. tariffs and Middle East energy disruptions that could weigh on domestic consumption and manufacturing momentum. Upcoming May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the narrow spread between the 3.5–3.9% and 4.0–4.4% outcomes ahead of the July advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volumen
$1,961Fecha de finalización
23 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent semiconductor export strength and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% year-over-year Q1 2026 GDP print have anchored trader-implied odds for Q2 growth in the 3.5–4.4% range, where the two leading buckets now hold a combined 97% probability. April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, continues to support upward revisions from institutions such as JPMorgan and KDI, which now project full-year growth near 2.5–3.0%. Countervailing pressures include subdued April employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and lingering risks from U.S. tariffs and Middle East energy disruptions that could weigh on domestic consumption and manufacturing momentum. Upcoming May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the narrow spread between the 3.5–3.9% and 4.0–4.4% outcomes ahead of the July advance release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes