Recent inflation readings, labor market conditions, and Treasury yield movements are the main drivers behind closely matched market-implied odds for the July 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, with readings of 55.0 or higher and the 43.0–45.9 range each at 54.5% probability. Traders are weighing whether cooling price pressures and steady job growth can lift confidence versus ongoing cost-of-living concerns that have kept the index range-bound historically. Key swing factors include upcoming employment data, Federal Reserve communications on the policy rate path, and any shifts in consumer spending or wage trends. Resolution remains highly sensitive to these releases given the narrow probability spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado43.0–45.9 17%
46.0–48.9 17%
52.0–54.9 16%
≥55.0 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
<40.0
5%
40.0–42.9
7%
43.0–45.9
17%
46.0–48.9
17%
49.0–51.9
11%
52.0–54.9
16%
≥55.0
12%
43.0–45.9 17%
46.0–48.9 17%
52.0–54.9 16%
≥55.0 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
<40.0
$0 Vol.
5%
40.0–42.9
$0 Vol.
7%
43.0–45.9
$60 Vol.
17%
46.0–48.9
$20 Vol.
17%
49.0–51.9
$20 Vol.
11%
52.0–54.9
$20 Vol.
16%
≥55.0
$20 Vol.
12%
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent inflation readings, labor market conditions, and Treasury yield movements are the main drivers behind closely matched market-implied odds for the July 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, with readings of 55.0 or higher and the 43.0–45.9 range each at 54.5% probability. Traders are weighing whether cooling price pressures and steady job growth can lift confidence versus ongoing cost-of-living concerns that have kept the index range-bound historically. Key swing factors include upcoming employment data, Federal Reserve communications on the policy rate path, and any shifts in consumer spending or wage trends. Resolution remains highly sensitive to these releases given the narrow probability spread.
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volumen
$140Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent inflation readings, labor market conditions, and Treasury yield movements are the main drivers behind closely matched market-implied odds for the July 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, with readings of 55.0 or higher and the 43.0–45.9 range each at 54.5% probability. Traders are weighing whether cooling price pressures and steady job growth can lift confidence versus ongoing cost-of-living concerns that have kept the index range-bound historically. Key swing factors include upcoming employment data, Federal Reserve communications on the policy rate path, and any shifts in consumer spending or wage trends. Resolution remains highly sensitive to these releases given the narrow probability spread.
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$140Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings, labor market conditions, and Treasury yield movements are the main drivers behind closely matched market-implied odds for the July 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, with readings of 55.0 or higher and the 43.0–45.9 range each at 54.5% probability. Traders are weighing whether cooling price pressures and steady job growth can lift confidence versus ongoing cost-of-living concerns that have kept the index range-bound historically. Key swing factors include upcoming employment data, Federal Reserve communications on the policy rate path, and any shifts in consumer spending or wage trends. Resolution remains highly sensitive to these releases given the narrow probability spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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