Skip to main content
icon for US economic state at the end of 2026?
Economía·IPC

US economic state at the end of 2026?

icon for US economic state at the end of 2026?
Economía·IPC

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 62%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 36%

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 4.5%

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%

Polymarket

$70,976 Vol.

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 62%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 36%

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 4.5%

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%

Polymarket

$70,976 Vol.

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

$32,979 Vol.

62%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$24,555 Vol.

36%

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$10,844 Vol.

5%

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

$2,598 Vol.

<1%

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Recent U.S. economic data point to a resilient labor market alongside sticky but moderating inflation, positioning Soft Landing as the leading Polymarket outcome at 61.5% implied probability.** As of July 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, down from 4.2% the prior month and well below the 5.0% threshold, with nonfarm payrolls showing only modest softening (–23,000 in July). Annual CPI inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, while core PCE held near 3.3% in June. These readings reflect the lingering effects of the Middle East energy shock and tariffs, which elevated prices earlier in the year, offset by AI-related investment supporting growth near 2%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026, with market participants and economists widely expecting no changes through year-end amid balanced but inflation-tilted risks. Forecasts from sources including S&P Global and others anticipate unemployment remaining around 4.3% and inflation trending toward or below 3.5% by December 2026, consistent with trader consensus favoring Soft Landing over Overheating (36.0%). Stagflation and Slack outcomes remain remote given the low unemployment base rate and absence of recession signals. Key upcoming releases—August CPI/PCE, employment reports, and FOMC communications—will further shape these market-implied odds.

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.

This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.

If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.

This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.

The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Volumen
$70,976
Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Recent U.S. economic data point to a resilient labor market alongside sticky but moderating inflation, positioning Soft Landing as the leading Polymarket outcome at 61.5% implied probability.** As of July 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, down from 4.2% the prior month and well below the 5.0% threshold, with nonfarm payrolls showing only modest softening (–23,000 in July). Annual CPI inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, while core PCE held near 3.3% in June. These readings reflect the lingering effects of the Middle East energy shock and tariffs, which elevated prices earlier in the year, offset by AI-related investment supporting growth near 2%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026, with market participants and economists widely expecting no changes through year-end amid balanced but inflation-tilted risks. Forecasts from sources including S&P Global and others anticipate unemployment remaining around 4.3% and inflation trending toward or below 3.5% by December 2026, consistent with trader consensus favoring Soft Landing over Overheating (36.0%). Stagflation and Slack outcomes remain remote given the low unemployment base rate and absence of recession signals. Key upcoming releases—August CPI/PCE, employment reports, and FOMC communications—will further shape these market-implied odds.

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.

This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.

If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.

This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.

The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Volumen
$70,976
Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.

Relacionado

icon for ¿Llegará el desempleo en EE. UU. al menos al 5,0% en 2026?

¿Llegará el desempleo en EE. UU. al menos al 5,0% en 2026?

12%
Sí
icon for ¿La inflación superará el 4,5% en 2026?

¿La inflación superará el 4,5% en 2026?

14%
Sí
icon for ¿No habrá cambios en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de diciembre de 2026?

¿No habrá cambios en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de diciembre de 2026?

63%
Sí

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"US economic state at the end of 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)" con 62%, seguido de "Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)" con 36%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 62¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 62% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "US economic state at the end of 2026?" ha generado $71K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 24, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "US economic state at the end of 2026?", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "US economic state at the end of 2026?" es "Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)" con 62%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 62% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)" con 36%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "US economic state at the end of 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.