**Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a record post-war supermajority of 316 seats in the February 2026 general election after dissolving the House of Representatives in late January, giving the ruling LDP–Japan Innovation Party coalition 352 of 465 lower-house seats.** This outcome, combined with the recent fragmentation of the main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance in early September 2026 and the absence of any reported coalition fractures or leadership challenges, has produced broad trader consensus against another dissolution before year-end. A cabinet reshuffle completed on September 17 further signals continuity rather than instability. With the next scheduled lower-house election due no later than 2030 and the upper house immune to dissolution, realistic triggers for an early 2026 move—such as a sudden collapse in approval ratings, major scandal, or loss of Diet functionality—remain remote given the current power balance.