Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature near 22°C in Beijing on August 21, 2026, under thunderstorms that promote overnight cooling through cloud cover and precipitation. Late-summer monsoon conditions, combined with high humidity and urban heat island effects at monitoring stations, typically anchor overnight lows in the low-20s°C range, with radiative cooling limited by moisture. Ensemble model guidance shows limited spread around this baseline, though minor variations in storm timing or wind patterns could nudge the recorded minimum by 1°C. Trader consensus reflected in the 63% and 38.5% implied probabilities on 24°C and 23°C aligns with historical August variability and resolution criteria focused on official station data rather than broader averages.