**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on August 21 centers on a cool southerly airflow and stable high-pressure system promoting strong nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly clear skies.** Official forecasts from Argentine meteorological agencies and international models indicate overnight lows near 5°C, with the daily minimum likely occurring just before dawn due to calm winds and low humidity favoring heat loss from the surface. Historical August climatology shows typical minima of 8–10°C, but this event features a polar air mass intrusion that has already produced recent lows in the 6–7°C range, shifting probabilities toward 2–6°C outcomes. Minor model disagreements on boundary-layer mixing, exact cloud timing, and urban heat-island effects create the tight clustering around these values, while sub-zero readings remain improbable absent an unexpected cold surge. Updated model runs and early-morning observations will refine the final resolution.