Recent forecast consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting minimum temperatures near 18–19°C on August 23 and driving the 40% implied probability on 17°C or below. Madrid’s late-August climatology features average lows of 16–18°C, with trader positioning reflecting uncertainty in exact dew point and boundary-layer mixing that could allow cooler readings if high pressure strengthens. Upcoming 48-hour model updates and AEMET station observations will refine these bands, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed often separate adjacent outcomes in this tight market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más baja en Madrid el 23 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más baja en Madrid el 23 de agosto?
17°C or below 41%
19°C 22%
18°C 21%
27°C or higher 20.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
17°C or below
41%
18°C
21%
19°C
22%
20°C
20%
21°C
19%
22°C
15%
23°C
16%
24°C
20%
25°C
17%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
20%
17°C or below 41%
19°C 22%
18°C 21%
27°C or higher 20.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
41%
18°C
$1 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$0 Vol.
19%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$0 Vol.
16%
24°C
$22 Vol.
20%
25°C
$22 Vol.
17%
26°C
$5 Vol.
8%
27°C or higher
$27 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting minimum temperatures near 18–19°C on August 23 and driving the 40% implied probability on 17°C or below. Madrid’s late-August climatology features average lows of 16–18°C, with trader positioning reflecting uncertainty in exact dew point and boundary-layer mixing that could allow cooler readings if high pressure strengthens. Upcoming 48-hour model updates and AEMET station observations will refine these bands, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed often separate adjacent outcomes in this tight market.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$76Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting minimum temperatures near 18–19°C on August 23 and driving the 40% implied probability on 17°C or below. Madrid’s late-August climatology features average lows of 16–18°C, with trader positioning reflecting uncertainty in exact dew point and boundary-layer mixing that could allow cooler readings if high pressure strengthens. Upcoming 48-hour model updates and AEMET station observations will refine these bands, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed often separate adjacent outcomes in this tight market.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$76Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting minimum temperatures near 18–19°C on August 23 and driving the 40% implied probability on 17°C or below. Madrid’s late-August climatology features average lows of 16–18°C, with trader positioning reflecting uncertainty in exact dew point and boundary-layer mixing that could allow cooler readings if high pressure strengthens. Upcoming 48-hour model updates and AEMET station observations will refine these bands, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed often separate adjacent outcomes in this tight market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes