Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a mild overnight period for New York City on September 13, with forecast lows clustered between 68–73 °F amid light southerly flow, high humidity, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling. This above-normal range—relative to the 1991–2020 September 13 average low of 62.6 °F—reflects persistent warm advection and cloud cover that suppress temperature drops. Traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities across the 70–77 °F bins because small shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer mixing can alter the exact minimum by a degree or two. Updated model runs from NOAA and short-range guidance expected later today will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.