Recent forecast consensus from multiple models positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shenzhen’s September 11 high, reflecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions under northeasterly flow with limited cloud cover and no significant frontal or tropical systems suppressing daytime heating. Subtropical September climatology supports highs in the low-30s°C range when insolation remains strong and moisture stays moderate, consistent with current observations showing temperatures climbing toward 31–32°C on the 10th. Trader consensus, with 32°C at 46% implied probability and 31°C at 36%, aligns with the tight spread in official guidance, while lower odds on 33°C or above reflect modest uncertainty from possible afternoon convection. New model runs and Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau updates expected overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Shenzhen el 11 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Shenzhen el 11 de septiembre?
32°C 48%
31°C 36%
33°C 9%
30°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
11 sep 2026
26°C o menos
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
7%
31°C
36%
32°C
48%
33°C
9%
34°C
4%
35°C
<1%
36°C o más
<1%
32°C 48%
31°C 36%
33°C 9%
30°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
11 sep 2026
26°C o menos
$215 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$120 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$538 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$850 Vol.
2%
30°C
$328 Vol.
7%
31°C
$542 Vol.
36%
32°C
$452 Vol.
48%
33°C
$210 Vol.
9%
34°C
$858 Vol.
4%
35°C
$335 Vol.
<1%
36°C o más
$133 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shenzhen’s September 11 high, reflecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions under northeasterly flow with limited cloud cover and no significant frontal or tropical systems suppressing daytime heating. Subtropical September climatology supports highs in the low-30s°C range when insolation remains strong and moisture stays moderate, consistent with current observations showing temperatures climbing toward 31–32°C on the 10th. Trader consensus, with 32°C at 46% implied probability and 31°C at 36%, aligns with the tight spread in official guidance, while lower odds on 33°C or above reflect modest uncertainty from possible afternoon convection. New model runs and Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau updates expected overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$4,580Fecha de finalización
11 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shenzhen’s September 11 high, reflecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions under northeasterly flow with limited cloud cover and no significant frontal or tropical systems suppressing daytime heating. Subtropical September climatology supports highs in the low-30s°C range when insolation remains strong and moisture stays moderate, consistent with current observations showing temperatures climbing toward 31–32°C on the 10th. Trader consensus, with 32°C at 46% implied probability and 31°C at 36%, aligns with the tight spread in official guidance, while lower odds on 33°C or above reflect modest uncertainty from possible afternoon convection. New model runs and Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau updates expected overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$4,580Fecha de finalización
11 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from multiple models positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shenzhen’s September 11 high, reflecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions under northeasterly flow with limited cloud cover and no significant frontal or tropical systems suppressing daytime heating. Subtropical September climatology supports highs in the low-30s°C range when insolation remains strong and moisture stays moderate, consistent with current observations showing temperatures climbing toward 31–32°C on the 10th. Trader consensus, with 32°C at 46% implied probability and 31°C at 36%, aligns with the tight spread in official guidance, while lower odds on 33°C or above reflect modest uncertainty from possible afternoon convection. New model runs and Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau updates expected overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes