**Forecast consensus from multiple models centers the overnight low in Shanghai on August 28 near 27–28 °C, directly supporting the market’s tight 53 % / 43 % split between those two outcomes.** Official and ensemble guidance shows a warm, humid maritime air mass persisting under light easterly flow with scattered showers or drizzle, which limits nighttime radiative cooling. Most runs project a minimum of 27 °C (Worldmeteo, several Chinese meteorological sites), while others hold near 28 °C (Tutiempo, WindBorne). Historical August normals hover around 24 °C, but the current pattern—elevated dew points near 25–26 °C and cloud cover—keeps readings several degrees above climatology. No strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative event is expected before dawn on the 28th, so probabilities remain concentrated on the 27–28 °C band, with only small tail risk for 26 °C or lower if heavier rain enhances cooling. Updated model runs and official briefings from the China Meteorological Administration through the evening of the 27th will provide the final data points for resolution.