**Latest official and model guidance shows Warsaw temperatures climbing from overnight lows near 15–17°C toward a daytime peak likely between 21–23°C, with showers and increasing cloud cover moderating the high.** Southerly flow and moderate humidity (around 50–70%) are limiting strong surface heating, while scattered rain and thunderstorms—forecast probabilities ranging 25–70% depending on the model—introduce timing uncertainty that directly affects whether the daily maximum reaches 22°C or stalls at 21°C. Global and regional models (including GFS and similar runs) cluster tightly around this narrow band, with slight differences in convective timing or cloud thickness explaining the near-even market split between the two leading outcomes. Historical August climatology for Warsaw places average daily highs near 21–22°C, providing context that current conditions align closely with seasonal norms rather than extremes. As resolution nears, updated short-range forecasts from agencies like IMGW or ECMWF will clarify whether any breaks in cloud cover allow an extra degree of warming.