**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS runs points to an overnight minimum near 14–16 °C in Warsaw on 29 August, as a moist southwesterly flow ahead of a weak front brings increased cloud cover and light showers that curb radiative cooling.** Surface dew points near 11–13 °C and modest winds (10–15 km/h) further limit the drop, while daytime mixing from the preceding high-pressure regime keeps the boundary layer relatively warm. Historical August climatology for the Chopin Airport station shows typical lows of 14–15 °C, so current model consensus aligns closely with that baseline rather than extremes. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on the 13 °C and 15 °C outcomes (43.5 % and 45.5 %), reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any last-minute model shifts before official verification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 29 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 29 de agosto?
15°C 45%
13°C 43%
21°C or higher 28%
16°C 27%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 ago 2026
11°C or below
18%
12°C
8%
13°C
43%
14°C
16%
15°C
45%
16°C
27%
17°C
27%
18°C
10%
19°C
2%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
28%
15°C 45%
13°C 43%
21°C or higher 28%
16°C 27%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 ago 2026
11°C or below
$5 Vol.
18%
12°C
$5 Vol.
8%
13°C
$6 Vol.
43%
14°C
$0 Vol.
16%
15°C
$0 Vol.
45%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
10%
19°C
$10 Vol.
2%
20°C
$5 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$5 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS runs points to an overnight minimum near 14–16 °C in Warsaw on 29 August, as a moist southwesterly flow ahead of a weak front brings increased cloud cover and light showers that curb radiative cooling.**
Surface dew points near 11–13 °C and modest winds (10–15 km/h) further limit the drop, while daytime mixing from the preceding high-pressure regime keeps the boundary layer relatively warm. Historical August climatology for the Chopin Airport station shows typical lows of 14–15 °C, so current model consensus aligns closely with that baseline rather than extremes. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on the 13 °C and 15 °C outcomes (43.5 % and 45.5 %), reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any last-minute model shifts before official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$36Fecha de finalización
29 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS runs points to an overnight minimum near 14–16 °C in Warsaw on 29 August, as a moist southwesterly flow ahead of a weak front brings increased cloud cover and light showers that curb radiative cooling.**
Surface dew points near 11–13 °C and modest winds (10–15 km/h) further limit the drop, while daytime mixing from the preceding high-pressure regime keeps the boundary layer relatively warm. Historical August climatology for the Chopin Airport station shows typical lows of 14–15 °C, so current model consensus aligns closely with that baseline rather than extremes. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on the 13 °C and 15 °C outcomes (43.5 % and 45.5 %), reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any last-minute model shifts before official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$36Fecha de finalización
29 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS runs points to an overnight minimum near 14–16 °C in Warsaw on 29 August, as a moist southwesterly flow ahead of a weak front brings increased cloud cover and light showers that curb radiative cooling.** Surface dew points near 11–13 °C and modest winds (10–15 km/h) further limit the drop, while daytime mixing from the preceding high-pressure regime keeps the boundary layer relatively warm. Historical August climatology for the Chopin Airport station shows typical lows of 14–15 °C, so current model consensus aligns closely with that baseline rather than extremes. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on the 13 °C and 15 °C outcomes (43.5 % and 45.5 %), reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any last-minute model shifts before official verification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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