**Recent weather model consensus and observational trends position overnight lows in Warsaw around 12–14°C as the most probable range for August 30, 2026, driving the market’s heaviest trading on 11–14°C outcomes.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under a weakening high-pressure ridge centered over northern Europe are allowing efficient radiational cooling after sunset, with light south-southwesterly winds (2–4 m/s) and dew points near 12–14°C limiting further temperature drops. Official guidance from sources such as IMGW and ensemble forecasts (GFS/ECMWF runs) show minimum temperatures occurring in the pre-dawn hours of August 30, typically between 13–15°C at Chopin Airport and city stations, with limited spread across models. Historical August climatology for Warsaw (average overnight lows near 15°C) supports the cooler bias this year from drier, more stable air masses. The 11°C outcome leads because some higher-resolution runs and recent satellite trends indicate slightly enhanced cooling if cloud cover remains minimal; probabilities drop sharply below 10°C or above 16°C due to the absence of stronger advection or precipitation that could alter the boundary layer. Updated model runs overnight on August 29–30 will provide the final refinement before the market resolves.