**Forecast models and recent observations point to a minimum temperature in Shenzhen on September 10 near 24–25 °C, shaped by lingering monsoon moisture, variable cloud cover, and light winds that limit overnight radiative cooling.** Subtropical conditions in early September typically produce overnight lows in the mid-20s °C amid high humidity (70–90 %) and scattered showers, which suppress temperature drops compared with clearer, drier nights. Recent days have featured daytime highs of 30–33 °C and minima around 24–26 °C, aligning with seasonal baselines. The closely matched market probabilities across the 19–29 °C range reflect uncertainty in exact rainfall timing, cloud persistence, and boundary-layer mixing—factors that can shift the overnight low by several degrees. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles will clarify steering patterns and precipitation before resolution.