Traders are pricing a narrow range of outcomes for the May unemployment rate amid mixed labor market signals, with the 4.3% level commanding the highest implied probability at 38% followed closely by 4.4% at 32%. Recent nonfarm payrolls and revisions to prior months have shown modest softening in hiring momentum while the labor force participation rate remains stable, keeping consensus forecasts clustered between 4.2% and 4.4%. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing focus on employment trends as a balance against inflation has reinforced this tight distribution, as participants assess whether cooling will accelerate or stabilize ahead of the June release. Interim indicators such as jobless claims and ADP employment data will likely serve as the next swing factors before the official Bureau of Labor Statistics print resolves the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay Unemployment Rate
May Unemployment Rate
4.3% 38%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 16%
4.0% 10.7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 jun 2026
≤3.9%
3%
4.0%
11%
4.1%
11%
4.2%
18%
4.3%
38%
4.4%
35%
4.5%
11%
4.6%
4%
≥4.7%
4%
4.3% 38%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 16%
4.0% 10.7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 jun 2026
≤3.9%
$46 Vol.
3%
4.0%
$73 Vol.
11%
4.1%
$45 Vol.
11%
4.2%
$38 Vol.
18%
4.3%
$107 Vol.
38%
4.4%
$54 Vol.
35%
4.5%
$50 Vol.
11%
4.6%
$45 Vol.
4%
≥4.7%
$52 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Traders are pricing a narrow range of outcomes for the May unemployment rate amid mixed labor market signals, with the 4.3% level commanding the highest implied probability at 38% followed closely by 4.4% at 32%. Recent nonfarm payrolls and revisions to prior months have shown modest softening in hiring momentum while the labor force participation rate remains stable, keeping consensus forecasts clustered between 4.2% and 4.4%. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing focus on employment trends as a balance against inflation has reinforced this tight distribution, as participants assess whether cooling will accelerate or stabilize ahead of the June release. Interim indicators such as jobless claims and ADP employment data will likely serve as the next swing factors before the official Bureau of Labor Statistics print resolves the market.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volumen
$511Fecha de finalización
5 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Traders are pricing a narrow range of outcomes for the May unemployment rate amid mixed labor market signals, with the 4.3% level commanding the highest implied probability at 38% followed closely by 4.4% at 32%. Recent nonfarm payrolls and revisions to prior months have shown modest softening in hiring momentum while the labor force participation rate remains stable, keeping consensus forecasts clustered between 4.2% and 4.4%. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing focus on employment trends as a balance against inflation has reinforced this tight distribution, as participants assess whether cooling will accelerate or stabilize ahead of the June release. Interim indicators such as jobless claims and ADP employment data will likely serve as the next swing factors before the official Bureau of Labor Statistics print resolves the market.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$511Fecha de finalización
5 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing a narrow range of outcomes for the May unemployment rate amid mixed labor market signals, with the 4.3% level commanding the highest implied probability at 38% followed closely by 4.4% at 32%. Recent nonfarm payrolls and revisions to prior months have shown modest softening in hiring momentum while the labor force participation rate remains stable, keeping consensus forecasts clustered between 4.2% and 4.4%. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing focus on employment trends as a balance against inflation has reinforced this tight distribution, as participants assess whether cooling will accelerate or stabilize ahead of the June release. Interim indicators such as jobless claims and ADP employment data will likely serve as the next swing factors before the official Bureau of Labor Statistics print resolves the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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