Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange between May 9 and 11, 2026, confirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv following competing unilateral pauses around Russia’s Victory Day. Despite this limited halt in kinetic activity, Russian officials stated that a broader peace agreement remains a very long way off, while intensified strikes and unresolved disputes over territory and security guarantees continue. Geneva talks earlier in 2026 yielded incremental prisoner exchanges but stalled on monitoring mechanisms and political terms. Traders therefore assign low implied probability to any official, mutually agreed ceasefire by mid-year or year-end, reflecting the absence of sustained de-escalation or breakthrough negotiations in the current stalemate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
$631,177 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de mayo
3%
30 de junio
12%
31 de octubre
38%
31 de diciembre
53%
$631,177 Vol.
31 de mayo
$272,550 Vol.
3%
30 de junio
$197,623 Vol.
12%
31 de octubre
$57,059 Vol.
38%
31 de diciembre
$103,946 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange between May 9 and 11, 2026, confirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv following competing unilateral pauses around Russia’s Victory Day. Despite this limited halt in kinetic activity, Russian officials stated that a broader peace agreement remains a very long way off, while intensified strikes and unresolved disputes over territory and security guarantees continue. Geneva talks earlier in 2026 yielded incremental prisoner exchanges but stalled on monitoring mechanisms and political terms. Traders therefore assign low implied probability to any official, mutually agreed ceasefire by mid-year or year-end, reflecting the absence of sustained de-escalation or breakthrough negotiations in the current stalemate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volumen
$631,177Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange between May 9 and 11, 2026, confirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv following competing unilateral pauses around Russia’s Victory Day. Despite this limited halt in kinetic activity, Russian officials stated that a broader peace agreement remains a very long way off, while intensified strikes and unresolved disputes over territory and security guarantees continue. Geneva talks earlier in 2026 yielded incremental prisoner exchanges but stalled on monitoring mechanisms and political terms. Traders therefore assign low implied probability to any official, mutually agreed ceasefire by mid-year or year-end, reflecting the absence of sustained de-escalation or breakthrough negotiations in the current stalemate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$631,177Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange between May 9 and 11, 2026, confirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv following competing unilateral pauses around Russia’s Victory Day. Despite this limited halt in kinetic activity, Russian officials stated that a broader peace agreement remains a very long way off, while intensified strikes and unresolved disputes over territory and security guarantees continue. Geneva talks earlier in 2026 yielded incremental prisoner exchanges but stalled on monitoring mechanisms and political terms. Traders therefore assign low implied probability to any official, mutually agreed ceasefire by mid-year or year-end, reflecting the absence of sustained de-escalation or breakthrough negotiations in the current stalemate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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