Sustained NATO military assistance and reaffirmed commitments to Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration continue to shape trader expectations against any near-term neutrality pledge. Allies recently pledged around $60 billion in security aid for 2026 while advancing interoperability programs and joint training exercises, including Ukrainian drone expertise shared during NATO drills in Sweden. Ukrainian public opinion remains firmly supportive of membership, and no formal diplomatic channel has emerged that would require Kyiv to forgo alliance accession by the June 30 deadline. The near-certain “No” pricing reflects the absence of negotiating momentum amid active conflict and ongoing Western security guarantees short of Article 5. Only a sudden breakthrough in broader peace talks offering alternative long-term protections could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$40,263 Vol.
$40,263 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$40,263 Vol.
$40,263 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Sustained NATO military assistance and reaffirmed commitments to Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration continue to shape trader expectations against any near-term neutrality pledge. Allies recently pledged around $60 billion in security aid for 2026 while advancing interoperability programs and joint training exercises, including Ukrainian drone expertise shared during NATO drills in Sweden. Ukrainian public opinion remains firmly supportive of membership, and no formal diplomatic channel has emerged that would require Kyiv to forgo alliance accession by the June 30 deadline. The near-certain “No” pricing reflects the absence of negotiating momentum amid active conflict and ongoing Western security guarantees short of Article 5. Only a sudden breakthrough in broader peace talks offering alternative long-term protections could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
Volumen
$40,263Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Sustained NATO military assistance and reaffirmed commitments to Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration continue to shape trader expectations against any near-term neutrality pledge. Allies recently pledged around $60 billion in security aid for 2026 while advancing interoperability programs and joint training exercises, including Ukrainian drone expertise shared during NATO drills in Sweden. Ukrainian public opinion remains firmly supportive of membership, and no formal diplomatic channel has emerged that would require Kyiv to forgo alliance accession by the June 30 deadline. The near-certain “No” pricing reflects the absence of negotiating momentum amid active conflict and ongoing Western security guarantees short of Article 5. Only a sudden breakthrough in broader peace talks offering alternative long-term protections could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volumen
$40,263Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sustained NATO military assistance and reaffirmed commitments to Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration continue to shape trader expectations against any near-term neutrality pledge. Allies recently pledged around $60 billion in security aid for 2026 while advancing interoperability programs and joint training exercises, including Ukrainian drone expertise shared during NATO drills in Sweden. Ukrainian public opinion remains firmly supportive of membership, and no formal diplomatic channel has emerged that would require Kyiv to forgo alliance accession by the June 30 deadline. The near-certain “No” pricing reflects the absence of negotiating momentum amid active conflict and ongoing Western security guarantees short of Article 5. Only a sudden breakthrough in broader peace talks offering alternative long-term protections could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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