U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains subject to a voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification rather than underground detonations. Trader sentiment reflects this continuity, as statements from the Trump administration in late 2025 directing review of testing on an “equal basis” with Russia and China have not produced confirmed plans, funding shifts, or readiness timelines for yield-producing tests at the Nevada site. Concerns over potential low-yield activity by competitors and the expiration of New START have prompted policy discussion, yet congressional oversight, technical preparation requirements, and diplomatic considerations continue to constrain near-term resumption. No scheduled events or legislative actions in the coming months appear positioned to alter that baseline.