US mediation efforts under President Trump have driven recent trader sentiment, highlighted by the US-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that suspended kinetic activity and enabled a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s subsequent statements suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end and his openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a finalized treaty have added diplomatic signals, though both sides continue mutual accusations of violations and maintain entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Stalled broader negotiations, persistent airstrikes and ground operations, and competing ceasefire proposals underscore the gap between short-term humanitarian pauses and a comprehensive agreement. Upcoming diplomatic engagements and any extension of the current truce remain key variables that could influence probabilities for a formal ceasefire by year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
$623,338 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de mayo
3%
30 de junio
12%
31 de octubre
37%
31 de diciembre
49%
$623,338 Vol.
31 de mayo
$270,802 Vol.
3%
30 de junio
$197,623 Vol.
12%
31 de octubre
$57,059 Vol.
37%
31 de diciembre
$98,132 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US mediation efforts under President Trump have driven recent trader sentiment, highlighted by the US-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that suspended kinetic activity and enabled a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s subsequent statements suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end and his openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a finalized treaty have added diplomatic signals, though both sides continue mutual accusations of violations and maintain entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Stalled broader negotiations, persistent airstrikes and ground operations, and competing ceasefire proposals underscore the gap between short-term humanitarian pauses and a comprehensive agreement. Upcoming diplomatic engagements and any extension of the current truce remain key variables that could influence probabilities for a formal ceasefire by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volumen
$623,338Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US mediation efforts under President Trump have driven recent trader sentiment, highlighted by the US-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that suspended kinetic activity and enabled a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s subsequent statements suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end and his openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a finalized treaty have added diplomatic signals, though both sides continue mutual accusations of violations and maintain entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Stalled broader negotiations, persistent airstrikes and ground operations, and competing ceasefire proposals underscore the gap between short-term humanitarian pauses and a comprehensive agreement. Upcoming diplomatic engagements and any extension of the current truce remain key variables that could influence probabilities for a formal ceasefire by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$623,338Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US mediation efforts under President Trump have driven recent trader sentiment, highlighted by the US-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that suspended kinetic activity and enabled a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s subsequent statements suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end and his openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a finalized treaty have added diplomatic signals, though both sides continue mutual accusations of violations and maintain entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Stalled broader negotiations, persistent airstrikes and ground operations, and competing ceasefire proposals underscore the gap between short-term humanitarian pauses and a comprehensive agreement. Upcoming diplomatic engagements and any extension of the current truce remain key variables that could influence probabilities for a formal ceasefire by year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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