U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, running May 9–11 and tied to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, has become the dominant factor shaping trader assessments of progress toward a broader agreement. Both governments confirmed the U.S.-mediated pause in all kinetic activity, coinciding with Russia's Victory Day commemorations, after earlier unilateral truce proposals around the holiday collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since signaled openness to further talks, including a potential meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country once core conditions are met, while diplomatic channels continue to address territorial and security issues. These verified developments, occurring within the past ten days, reflect incremental de-escalation amid ongoing frontline constraints and international mediation efforts that could influence any longer-term resolution timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
$655,876 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de mayo
3%
30 de junio
12%
31 de octubre
38%
31 de diciembre
51%
$655,876 Vol.
31 de mayo
$279,370 Vol.
3%
30 de junio
$197,643 Vol.
12%
31 de octubre
$57,065 Vol.
38%
31 de diciembre
$122,135 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, running May 9–11 and tied to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, has become the dominant factor shaping trader assessments of progress toward a broader agreement. Both governments confirmed the U.S.-mediated pause in all kinetic activity, coinciding with Russia's Victory Day commemorations, after earlier unilateral truce proposals around the holiday collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since signaled openness to further talks, including a potential meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country once core conditions are met, while diplomatic channels continue to address territorial and security issues. These verified developments, occurring within the past ten days, reflect incremental de-escalation amid ongoing frontline constraints and international mediation efforts that could influence any longer-term resolution timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volumen
$655,876Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, running May 9–11 and tied to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, has become the dominant factor shaping trader assessments of progress toward a broader agreement. Both governments confirmed the U.S.-mediated pause in all kinetic activity, coinciding with Russia's Victory Day commemorations, after earlier unilateral truce proposals around the holiday collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since signaled openness to further talks, including a potential meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country once core conditions are met, while diplomatic channels continue to address territorial and security issues. These verified developments, occurring within the past ten days, reflect incremental de-escalation amid ongoing frontline constraints and international mediation efforts that could influence any longer-term resolution timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$655,876Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, running May 9–11 and tied to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, has become the dominant factor shaping trader assessments of progress toward a broader agreement. Both governments confirmed the U.S.-mediated pause in all kinetic activity, coinciding with Russia's Victory Day commemorations, after earlier unilateral truce proposals around the holiday collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since signaled openness to further talks, including a potential meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country once core conditions are met, while diplomatic channels continue to address territorial and security issues. These verified developments, occurring within the past ten days, reflect incremental de-escalation amid ongoing frontline constraints and international mediation efforts that could influence any longer-term resolution timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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