Incumbent Lindsey Graham and primary challenger Mark Lynch remain closely matched in trader assessments of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin, with Graham’s likely share clustered between 30-40% and notable probability assigned to outcomes outside listed Graham ranges. Graham benefits from substantial fundraising, institutional support, and a Trump endorsement, yet Lynch has drawn backing from voters seeking a stricter America First stance on issues including immigration and foreign policy. Polling averages placed Graham near the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, reflecting persistent intra-party skepticism toward the four-term senator’s record. Recent campaign events, including spending disparities and targeted outreach to populist voters, have sustained the tight positioning. Stronger-than-expected turnout among Graham’s base or clearer signals of unified party support could widen the margin, while Lynch consolidating additional conservative endorsements or higher opposition mobilization might narrow it or force different resolution scenarios.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPrimarias republicanas en el Senado de Carolina del Sur: margen de victoria en la primera ronda
Primarias republicanas en el Senado de Carolina del Sur: margen de victoria en la primera ronda
Graham 10–20% 7%
Graham <10% 1.5%
Lynch gana 1.1%
Graham 50%+ <1%
$6,849 Vol.
$6,849 Vol.
9 jun 2026
Graham 50%+
1%
Graham 40–50%
37%
Graham 30–40%
53%
Graham 20–30%
38%
Graham 10–20%
7%
Graham <10%
1%
Lynch gana
1%
Graham 10–20% 7%
Graham <10% 1.5%
Lynch gana 1.1%
Graham 50%+ <1%
$6,849 Vol.
$6,849 Vol.
9 jun 2026
Graham 50%+
$1,361 Vol.
1%
Graham 40–50%
$1,492 Vol.
37%
Graham 30–40%
$196 Vol.
53%
Graham 20–30%
$672 Vol.
38%
Graham 10–20%
$942 Vol.
7%
Graham <10%
$1,719 Vol.
1%
Lynch gana
$562 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Lindsey Graham and primary challenger Mark Lynch remain closely matched in trader assessments of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin, with Graham’s likely share clustered between 30-40% and notable probability assigned to outcomes outside listed Graham ranges. Graham benefits from substantial fundraising, institutional support, and a Trump endorsement, yet Lynch has drawn backing from voters seeking a stricter America First stance on issues including immigration and foreign policy. Polling averages placed Graham near the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, reflecting persistent intra-party skepticism toward the four-term senator’s record. Recent campaign events, including spending disparities and targeted outreach to populist voters, have sustained the tight positioning. Stronger-than-expected turnout among Graham’s base or clearer signals of unified party support could widen the margin, while Lynch consolidating additional conservative endorsements or higher opposition mobilization might narrow it or force different resolution scenarios.
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volumen
$6,849Fecha de finalización
9 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Lindsey Graham and primary challenger Mark Lynch remain closely matched in trader assessments of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin, with Graham’s likely share clustered between 30-40% and notable probability assigned to outcomes outside listed Graham ranges. Graham benefits from substantial fundraising, institutional support, and a Trump endorsement, yet Lynch has drawn backing from voters seeking a stricter America First stance on issues including immigration and foreign policy. Polling averages placed Graham near the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, reflecting persistent intra-party skepticism toward the four-term senator’s record. Recent campaign events, including spending disparities and targeted outreach to populist voters, have sustained the tight positioning. Stronger-than-expected turnout among Graham’s base or clearer signals of unified party support could widen the margin, while Lynch consolidating additional conservative endorsements or higher opposition mobilization might narrow it or force different resolution scenarios.
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$6,849Fecha de finalización
9 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Lindsey Graham and primary challenger Mark Lynch remain closely matched in trader assessments of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin, with Graham’s likely share clustered between 30-40% and notable probability assigned to outcomes outside listed Graham ranges. Graham benefits from substantial fundraising, institutional support, and a Trump endorsement, yet Lynch has drawn backing from voters seeking a stricter America First stance on issues including immigration and foreign policy. Polling averages placed Graham near the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, reflecting persistent intra-party skepticism toward the four-term senator’s record. Recent campaign events, including spending disparities and targeted outreach to populist voters, have sustained the tight positioning. Stronger-than-expected turnout among Graham’s base or clearer signals of unified party support could widen the margin, while Lynch consolidating additional conservative endorsements or higher opposition mobilization might narrow it or force different resolution scenarios.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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