Recent developments in the WTI crude oil market center on a shift toward surplus conditions, as the IEA’s November report lowered its 2026 global demand forecast and projected a 1.7 million barrel per day excess in Q4, contributing to WTI’s recent weekly decline of about 2.5% to settle near $88.56 on November 13. This follows October averages near $99 amid earlier geopolitical premiums, with prices now reflecting higher Gulf exports despite tanker incidents and infrastructure risks in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. commercial inventories rose 4.7 million barrels in the latest EIA data, while the Brent-WTI spread widened, signaling export pressures. Traders are watching weekly inventory releases, any escalation in Middle East supply disruptions, and broader demand indicators for near-term swings in the November trading range.