Persistent drought across the Danube basin has kept Budapest gauge readings near 40 cm in late September, far below the 93 cm Low Water Level threshold, following record lows earlier in 2026 driven by below-average precipitation and high evaporation. Short-term forecasts indicate continued dry conditions in upstream catchments, with limited rainfall expected over the next two weeks, sustaining low flows typical of early autumn. Traders assign the highest probability to an October rebound because seasonal cooling and any incoming precipitation could raise levels without requiring exceptional weather, while the sizable share for no recovery by November 1 reflects the risk that the multi-month deficit persists. Minor recent upticks in some lower sections have not yet translated to sustained gains at the reference gauge.