Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in May and Claude Fable 5 on June 9, have driven the market's overwhelming 95% consensus by establishing clear leads on composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench agentic coding, and long-horizon reasoning benchmarks as of mid-June 2026. These models outperform GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and others in overall capability for complex tasks, reflecting trader emphasis on verified leaderboard performance and practical developer adoption rather than speculation. With resolution imminent, the positioning could shift only if OpenAI or Google delivers an unexpected high-impact update or benchmark revision before month-end that demonstrably surpasses current Claude capabilities across key evaluations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 99.0%
OpenAI <1%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$22,086,286 Vol.
$22,086,286 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
99%
OpenAI
<1%
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
xAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 99.0%
OpenAI <1%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$22,086,286 Vol.
$22,086,286 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$2,333,080 Vol.
99%
OpenAI
$1,696,803 Vol.
<1%
$1,680,008 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$5,143,353 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,217,061 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,048,474 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$685,215 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$630,686 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$791,178 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,537,935 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$2,146,104 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$836,512 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$762,992 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,033,565 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$543,352 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in May and Claude Fable 5 on June 9, have driven the market's overwhelming 95% consensus by establishing clear leads on composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench agentic coding, and long-horizon reasoning benchmarks as of mid-June 2026. These models outperform GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and others in overall capability for complex tasks, reflecting trader emphasis on verified leaderboard performance and practical developer adoption rather than speculation. With resolution imminent, the positioning could shift only if OpenAI or Google delivers an unexpected high-impact update or benchmark revision before month-end that demonstrably surpasses current Claude capabilities across key evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$22,086,286Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in May and Claude Fable 5 on June 9, have driven the market's overwhelming 95% consensus by establishing clear leads on composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench agentic coding, and long-horizon reasoning benchmarks as of mid-June 2026. These models outperform GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and others in overall capability for complex tasks, reflecting trader emphasis on verified leaderboard performance and practical developer adoption rather than speculation. With resolution imminent, the positioning could shift only if OpenAI or Google delivers an unexpected high-impact update or benchmark revision before month-end that demonstrably surpasses current Claude capabilities across key evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$22,086,286Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in May and Claude Fable 5 on June 9, have driven the market's overwhelming 95% consensus by establishing clear leads on composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench agentic coding, and long-horizon reasoning benchmarks as of mid-June 2026. These models outperform GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and others in overall capability for complex tasks, reflecting trader emphasis on verified leaderboard performance and practical developer adoption rather than speculation. With resolution imminent, the positioning could shift only if OpenAI or Google delivers an unexpected high-impact update or benchmark revision before month-end that demonstrably surpasses current Claude capabilities across key evaluations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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