Anthropic’s 74% implied probability reflects its recent Claude model updates, which delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and multimodal capabilities over the past month, outpacing rivals in independent evaluations. Traders view these releases as extending Anthropic’s edge in safety-aligned performance and enterprise adoption. Google sits at 19% on the strength of Gemini 2.0 refinements and integration across its cloud platforms, though it trails in head-to-head comparisons. OpenAI’s lower 7.6% share stems from delayed GPT-5 rollout timelines and internal resource shifts, while xAI and others remain marginal due to limited public benchmark data. Upcoming developer conferences and new model announcements through late June remain the key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 74%
Google 19%
OpenAI 7.7%
xAI 2.7%
$400,291 Vol.
$400,291 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
74%
19%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Microsoft
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 74%
Google 19%
OpenAI 7.7%
xAI 2.7%
$400,291 Vol.
$400,291 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$14,660 Vol.
74%
$5,606 Vol.
19%
OpenAI
$34,197 Vol.
8%
xAI
$14,881 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$248,799 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$5,532 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$6,585 Vol.
1%
Meta
$4,175 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$4,912 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,388 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,312 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$34,076 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$5,546 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$4,723 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,898 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s 74% implied probability reflects its recent Claude model updates, which delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and multimodal capabilities over the past month, outpacing rivals in independent evaluations. Traders view these releases as extending Anthropic’s edge in safety-aligned performance and enterprise adoption. Google sits at 19% on the strength of Gemini 2.0 refinements and integration across its cloud platforms, though it trails in head-to-head comparisons. OpenAI’s lower 7.6% share stems from delayed GPT-5 rollout timelines and internal resource shifts, while xAI and others remain marginal due to limited public benchmark data. Upcoming developer conferences and new model announcements through late June remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$400,291Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s 74% implied probability reflects its recent Claude model updates, which delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and multimodal capabilities over the past month, outpacing rivals in independent evaluations. Traders view these releases as extending Anthropic’s edge in safety-aligned performance and enterprise adoption. Google sits at 19% on the strength of Gemini 2.0 refinements and integration across its cloud platforms, though it trails in head-to-head comparisons. OpenAI’s lower 7.6% share stems from delayed GPT-5 rollout timelines and internal resource shifts, while xAI and others remain marginal due to limited public benchmark data. Upcoming developer conferences and new model announcements through late June remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$400,291Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s 74% implied probability reflects its recent Claude model updates, which delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and multimodal capabilities over the past month, outpacing rivals in independent evaluations. Traders view these releases as extending Anthropic’s edge in safety-aligned performance and enterprise adoption. Google sits at 19% on the strength of Gemini 2.0 refinements and integration across its cloud platforms, though it trails in head-to-head comparisons. OpenAI’s lower 7.6% share stems from delayed GPT-5 rollout timelines and internal resource shifts, while xAI and others remain marginal due to limited public benchmark data. Upcoming developer conferences and new model announcements through late June remain the key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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