Apple’s long-standing September launch cadence for flagship iPhones, combined with recent supplier reports and component leaks confirming production of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, underpins the 98.5% implied probability for a 2026 release. Multiple credible sources indicate the premium variants, along with the first foldable iPhone, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale window, with no major manufacturing disruptions reported in recent months. While the base iPhone 18 appears shifted to early 2027 under Apple’s revised lineup strategy, the market likely treats the Pro models as satisfying the “iPhone 18” criterion. Realistic risks include last-minute supply-chain delays from memory constraints or foldable engineering hurdles, though these appear low-probability given the current timeline proximity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
98% probabilidad
$173,077 Vol.
$173,077 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
98% probabilidad
$173,077 Vol.
$173,077 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing September launch cadence for flagship iPhones, combined with recent supplier reports and component leaks confirming production of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, underpins the 98.5% implied probability for a 2026 release. Multiple credible sources indicate the premium variants, along with the first foldable iPhone, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale window, with no major manufacturing disruptions reported in recent months. While the base iPhone 18 appears shifted to early 2027 under Apple’s revised lineup strategy, the market likely treats the Pro models as satisfying the “iPhone 18” criterion. Realistic risks include last-minute supply-chain delays from memory constraints or foldable engineering hurdles, though these appear low-probability given the current timeline proximity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$173,077Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing September launch cadence for flagship iPhones, combined with recent supplier reports and component leaks confirming production of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, underpins the 98.5% implied probability for a 2026 release. Multiple credible sources indicate the premium variants, along with the first foldable iPhone, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale window, with no major manufacturing disruptions reported in recent months. While the base iPhone 18 appears shifted to early 2027 under Apple’s revised lineup strategy, the market likely treats the Pro models as satisfying the “iPhone 18” criterion. Realistic risks include last-minute supply-chain delays from memory constraints or foldable engineering hurdles, though these appear low-probability given the current timeline proximity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$173,077Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s long-standing September launch cadence for flagship iPhones, combined with recent supplier reports and component leaks confirming production of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, underpins the 98.5% implied probability for a 2026 release. Multiple credible sources indicate the premium variants, along with the first foldable iPhone, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale window, with no major manufacturing disruptions reported in recent months. While the base iPhone 18 appears shifted to early 2027 under Apple’s revised lineup strategy, the market likely treats the Pro models as satisfying the “iPhone 18” criterion. Realistic risks include last-minute supply-chain delays from memory constraints or foldable engineering hurdles, though these appear low-probability given the current timeline proximity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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