Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 9.3%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 Vol.
$400,986 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
72%
15%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 9.3%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 Vol.
$400,986 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$14,717 Vol.
72%
$5,648 Vol.
15%
OpenAI
$34,207 Vol.
9%
xAI
$14,892 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$249,054 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$5,685 Vol.
1%
Meta
$4,186 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$6,636 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$4,922 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,323 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$34,087 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,429 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$5,557 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,909 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$4,734 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$400,986Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$400,986Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes