Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, with no organized disturbances noted in the latest Tropical Weather Discussion. Early-season conditions feature cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C needed for sustained intensification, strong upper-level wind shear, and stable atmospheric layers suppressing development—historically, no hurricanes have made U.S. landfall in May since records began in 1851. NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15 and NOAA's seasonal forecast arrives May 21; a rare rapid genesis from incoming tropical waves steered westward could challenge this, though model consensus shows low risk before June 1.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$22,303 Vol.
$22,303 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$22,303 Vol.
$22,303 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, with no organized disturbances noted in the latest Tropical Weather Discussion. Early-season conditions feature cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C needed for sustained intensification, strong upper-level wind shear, and stable atmospheric layers suppressing development—historically, no hurricanes have made U.S. landfall in May since records began in 1851. NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15 and NOAA's seasonal forecast arrives May 21; a rare rapid genesis from incoming tropical waves steered westward could challenge this, though model consensus shows low risk before June 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volumen
$22,303Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, with no organized disturbances noted in the latest Tropical Weather Discussion. Early-season conditions feature cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C needed for sustained intensification, strong upper-level wind shear, and stable atmospheric layers suppressing development—historically, no hurricanes have made U.S. landfall in May since records began in 1851. NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15 and NOAA's seasonal forecast arrives May 21; a rare rapid genesis from incoming tropical waves steered westward could challenge this, though model consensus shows low risk before June 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Volumen
$22,303Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, with no organized disturbances noted in the latest Tropical Weather Discussion. Early-season conditions feature cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C needed for sustained intensification, strong upper-level wind shear, and stable atmospheric layers suppressing development—historically, no hurricanes have made U.S. landfall in May since records began in 1851. NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15 and NOAA's seasonal forecast arrives May 21; a rare rapid genesis from incoming tropical waves steered westward could challenge this, though model consensus shows low risk before June 1.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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