Recent outages on June 2, 5, 7, and 13 have positioned 6-8 days of Claude downtime as the market's leading outcome at 43.5% implied probability. Anthropic's status page logged elevated errors and partial outages across Claude.ai, the API, Opus models, and the newer Claude Code platform, driven by infrastructure strain from surging usage and model scaling. These incidents echo earlier 2026 disruptions, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining reliability for frontier large language models amid rapid adoption. Traders appear to factor in continued high demand and potential follow-on issues through late June, while lower probabilities for 3-5 days reflect skepticism that the pattern will improve sharply.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado6-8 44%
9-11 33%
12+ 15%
3-5 4.5%
$12,879 Vol.
$12,879 Vol.
30 jun 2026
3-5
5%
6-8
44%
9-11
33%
12+
15%
6-8 44%
9-11 33%
12+ 15%
3-5 4.5%
$12,879 Vol.
$12,879 Vol.
30 jun 2026
3-5
$4,244 Vol.
5%
6-8
$1,423 Vol.
44%
9-11
$1,884 Vol.
33%
12+
$2,033 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent outages on June 2, 5, 7, and 13 have positioned 6-8 days of Claude downtime as the market's leading outcome at 43.5% implied probability. Anthropic's status page logged elevated errors and partial outages across Claude.ai, the API, Opus models, and the newer Claude Code platform, driven by infrastructure strain from surging usage and model scaling. These incidents echo earlier 2026 disruptions, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining reliability for frontier large language models amid rapid adoption. Traders appear to factor in continued high demand and potential follow-on issues through late June, while lower probabilities for 3-5 days reflect skepticism that the pattern will improve sharply.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volumen
$12,879Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent outages on June 2, 5, 7, and 13 have positioned 6-8 days of Claude downtime as the market's leading outcome at 43.5% implied probability. Anthropic's status page logged elevated errors and partial outages across Claude.ai, the API, Opus models, and the newer Claude Code platform, driven by infrastructure strain from surging usage and model scaling. These incidents echo earlier 2026 disruptions, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining reliability for frontier large language models amid rapid adoption. Traders appear to factor in continued high demand and potential follow-on issues through late June, while lower probabilities for 3-5 days reflect skepticism that the pattern will improve sharply.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volumen
$12,879Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent outages on June 2, 5, 7, and 13 have positioned 6-8 days of Claude downtime as the market's leading outcome at 43.5% implied probability. Anthropic's status page logged elevated errors and partial outages across Claude.ai, the API, Opus models, and the newer Claude Code platform, driven by infrastructure strain from surging usage and model scaling. These incidents echo earlier 2026 disruptions, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining reliability for frontier large language models amid rapid adoption. Traders appear to factor in continued high demand and potential follow-on issues through late June, while lower probabilities for 3-5 days reflect skepticism that the pattern will improve sharply.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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