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icon for ¿El Reino Unido designará al IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio?

¿El Reino Unido designará al IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio?

icon for ¿El Reino Unido designará al IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio?

¿El Reino Unido designará al IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio?

Sí

3% probabilidad
Polymarket

$97,499 Vol.

Sí

3% probabilidad
Polymarket

$97,499 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.The UK government's decision not to proscribe the IRGC by the June 30 deadline reflects longstanding procedural and legal hurdles in designating a state-linked military entity under existing terrorism laws. Despite the EU's January 2026 terrorist listing, sustained cross-party pressure in Parliament, and calls from groups like the Board of Deputies, ministers have instead pursued new state threats legislation modeled on recommendations from the Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation. This process has not been expedited, with official statements emphasizing the need for tailored powers rather than immediate action. Trader consensus at 96.7% for "No" aligns with these timelines and institutional constraints. A sudden escalation in Iran-related security threats or emergency legislative acceleration could still alter the outcome before the cutoff, though such developments remain improbable in the remaining window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.

Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.
Volumen
$97,499
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 18, 2025, 11:33 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.The UK government's decision not to proscribe the IRGC by the June 30 deadline reflects longstanding procedural and legal hurdles in designating a state-linked military entity under existing terrorism laws. Despite the EU's January 2026 terrorist listing, sustained cross-party pressure in Parliament, and calls from groups like the Board of Deputies, ministers have instead pursued new state threats legislation modeled on recommendations from the Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation. This process has not been expedited, with official statements emphasizing the need for tailored powers rather than immediate action. Trader consensus at 96.7% for "No" aligns with these timelines and institutional constraints. A sudden escalation in Iran-related security threats or emergency legislative acceleration could still alter the outcome before the cutoff, though such developments remain improbable in the remaining window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.

Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.
Volumen
$97,499
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 18, 2025, 11:33 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El Reino Unido designará al IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio? " es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Designará el Reino Unido a la IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio?" con 3%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 3¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 3% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El Reino Unido designará al IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio? " ha generado $97.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 18, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El Reino Unido designará al IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio? ", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿El Reino Unido designará al IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio? " es "¿Designará el Reino Unido a la IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio?" con solo 3%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El Reino Unido designará al IRGC como organización terrorista antes del 30 de junio? " definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.