Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by the absence of any clemency action despite his issuance of over 1,600 pardons since January 2025 and her continued incarceration at a minimum-security federal prison camp in Texas following a controversial transfer. Recent April 2026 developments, including her attorney David Oscar Markus publicly advocating for a pardon in exchange for testimony on Jeffrey Epstein's network—potentially clearing figures like Trump—and divided House Oversight Committee responses with some Republicans open to cooperation but Democrats decrying it as outrageous, have fueled speculation without prompting White House movement. Trump's prior non-committal statements and the political toxicity of associating with Maxwell's sex-trafficking conviction underpin traders' skepticism amid backlash risks through 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$552,038 Vol.
$552,038 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$552,038 Vol.
$552,038 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by the absence of any clemency action despite his issuance of over 1,600 pardons since January 2025 and her continued incarceration at a minimum-security federal prison camp in Texas following a controversial transfer. Recent April 2026 developments, including her attorney David Oscar Markus publicly advocating for a pardon in exchange for testimony on Jeffrey Epstein's network—potentially clearing figures like Trump—and divided House Oversight Committee responses with some Republicans open to cooperation but Democrats decrying it as outrageous, have fueled speculation without prompting White House movement. Trump's prior non-committal statements and the political toxicity of associating with Maxwell's sex-trafficking conviction underpin traders' skepticism amid backlash risks through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Volumen
$552,038Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by the absence of any clemency action despite his issuance of over 1,600 pardons since January 2025 and her continued incarceration at a minimum-security federal prison camp in Texas following a controversial transfer. Recent April 2026 developments, including her attorney David Oscar Markus publicly advocating for a pardon in exchange for testimony on Jeffrey Epstein's network—potentially clearing figures like Trump—and divided House Oversight Committee responses with some Republicans open to cooperation but Democrats decrying it as outrageous, have fueled speculation without prompting White House movement. Trump's prior non-committal statements and the political toxicity of associating with Maxwell's sex-trafficking conviction underpin traders' skepticism amid backlash risks through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$552,038Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by the absence of any clemency action despite his issuance of over 1,600 pardons since January 2025 and her continued incarceration at a minimum-security federal prison camp in Texas following a controversial transfer. Recent April 2026 developments, including her attorney David Oscar Markus publicly advocating for a pardon in exchange for testimony on Jeffrey Epstein's network—potentially clearing figures like Trump—and divided House Oversight Committee responses with some Republicans open to cooperation but Democrats decrying it as outrageous, have fueled speculation without prompting White House movement. Trump's prior non-committal statements and the political toxicity of associating with Maxwell's sex-trafficking conviction underpin traders' skepticism amid backlash risks through 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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