Democratic gains in the November 2026 midterm elections, which delivered House control starting in January 2027, represent the central driver behind current trader consensus on impeachment probabilities. A simple House majority can advance articles of impeachment, enabling investigations and votes that were previously blocked under Republican leadership. Senate conviction for removal still requires a two-thirds threshold, a structural barrier that has never succeeded in prior presidential cases and would demand cross-party support. Democratic leaders have signaled priorities around oversight and affordability while leaving options open, with some members expressing caution about repeated unsuccessful proceedings. Recent public statements from the administration and party figures have not altered the underlying procedural dynamics.