**Democratic control of the House following the 2026 midterms remains the central driver behind the 62% implied probability for impeachment before the end of the term.** With Republicans holding narrow majorities in both chambers heading into November, traders are pricing in a plausible shift that would empower Democrats to advance articles of impeachment, building on earlier calls from more than 70 House members. Key recent developments include the April 2026 Iran conflict, during which President Trump’s public statements prompted renewed Democratic resolutions and 25th Amendment discussions. Ongoing disputes over election administration, voter data access, and midterm-related executive actions have sustained partisan friction and kept removal proceedings as a recurring topic in the minority caucus. Impeachment requires only a House majority, while conviction demands a two-thirds Senate vote—an outcome widely viewed as unlikely under current partisan alignment. The market reflects the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that a post-midterm House flip could trigger formal proceedings in 2027 or 2028, though success in the Senate or timing before January 2029 introduces substantial uncertainty. Historical precedent shows impeachment efforts often advance when one party holds the House during a president’s term, even if removal does not follow.