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¿Trump será destituido antes de que termine su mandato?

icon for ¿Trump será destituido antes de que termine su mandato?

¿Trump será destituido antes de que termine su mandato?

62% probabilidad
Polymarket

$89,034 Vol.

62% probabilidad
Polymarket

$89,034 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.**Democratic control of the House following the 2026 midterms remains the central driver behind the 62% implied probability for impeachment before the end of the term.** With Republicans holding narrow majorities in both chambers heading into November, traders are pricing in a plausible shift that would empower Democrats to advance articles of impeachment, building on earlier calls from more than 70 House members. Key recent developments include the April 2026 Iran conflict, during which President Trump’s public statements prompted renewed Democratic resolutions and 25th Amendment discussions. Ongoing disputes over election administration, voter data access, and midterm-related executive actions have sustained partisan friction and kept removal proceedings as a recurring topic in the minority caucus. Impeachment requires only a House majority, while conviction demands a two-thirds Senate vote—an outcome widely viewed as unlikely under current partisan alignment. The market reflects the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that a post-midterm House flip could trigger formal proceedings in 2027 or 2028, though success in the Senate or timing before January 2029 introduces substantial uncertainty. Historical precedent shows impeachment efforts often advance when one party holds the House during a president’s term, even if removal does not follow.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volumen
$89,034
Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2029
Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.**Democratic control of the House following the 2026 midterms remains the central driver behind the 62% implied probability for impeachment before the end of the term.** With Republicans holding narrow majorities in both chambers heading into November, traders are pricing in a plausible shift that would empower Democrats to advance articles of impeachment, building on earlier calls from more than 70 House members. Key recent developments include the April 2026 Iran conflict, during which President Trump’s public statements prompted renewed Democratic resolutions and 25th Amendment discussions. Ongoing disputes over election administration, voter data access, and midterm-related executive actions have sustained partisan friction and kept removal proceedings as a recurring topic in the minority caucus. Impeachment requires only a House majority, while conviction demands a two-thirds Senate vote—an outcome widely viewed as unlikely under current partisan alignment. The market reflects the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that a post-midterm House flip could trigger formal proceedings in 2027 or 2028, though success in the Senate or timing before January 2029 introduces substantial uncertainty. Historical precedent shows impeachment efforts often advance when one party holds the House during a president’s term, even if removal does not follow.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volumen
$89,034
Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2029
Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Trump será destituido antes de que termine su mandato?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Será destituido Trump antes de que termine su mandato?" con 62%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 62¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 62% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Trump será destituido antes de que termine su mandato?" ha generado $89K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 19, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Trump será destituido antes de que termine su mandato?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Trump será destituido antes de que termine su mandato?" es "¿Será destituido Trump antes de que termine su mandato?" con 62%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 62% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Trump será destituido antes de que termine su mandato?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.