Trader consensus prices France at 17.9% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, narrowly ahead of Spain (16.4%) and England (11.5%), reflecting a fiercely competitive field with no dominant favorite amid the expanded 48-team format's longer group stage and knockout paths. Recent preliminary squad announcements—Spain's 55-man list heavy on Barcelona stars like Lamine Yamal despite Dani Carvajal's omission, and France's resilient attack post-Hugo Ekitike's Achilles injury—underscore elite depth across contenders, bolstered by strong qualifier performances and manageable draws like England's Group L with Croatia, Ghana, and Panama. Brazil and Argentina trail due to transitional form, while historical pedigree in Euros, Copa America, and prior World Cups keeps the race tight, pricing in upset potential from rested squads and tactical matchups.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 17.9%
Spain 16.4%
England 11.5%
Brazil 9.2%
$972,121,384 Vol.
$972,121,384 Vol.
France
18%
Spain
16%
England
11%
Brazil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
France 17.9%
Spain 16.4%
England 11.5%
Brazil 9.2%
$972,121,384 Vol.
$972,121,384 Vol.
France
18%
Spain
16%
England
11%
Brazil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices France at 17.9% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, narrowly ahead of Spain (16.4%) and England (11.5%), reflecting a fiercely competitive field with no dominant favorite amid the expanded 48-team format's longer group stage and knockout paths. Recent preliminary squad announcements—Spain's 55-man list heavy on Barcelona stars like Lamine Yamal despite Dani Carvajal's omission, and France's resilient attack post-Hugo Ekitike's Achilles injury—underscore elite depth across contenders, bolstered by strong qualifier performances and manageable draws like England's Group L with Croatia, Ghana, and Panama. Brazil and Argentina trail due to transitional form, while historical pedigree in Euros, Copa America, and prior World Cups keeps the race tight, pricing in upset potential from rested squads and tactical matchups.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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