Apple’s current valuation near $5 trillion reflects strong iPhone demand, China rebound, and services growth that propelled it past Nvidia earlier in 2026, yet the closely matched $4.5–5.5 trillion outcomes for year-end signal uncertainty over sustaining that momentum. The September launch of the foldable iPhone Duo alongside iPhone 18 Pro models with the 2nm A20 chip and enhanced on-device Siri AI capabilities introduces new hardware and Apple Intelligence features that could drive upgrades, but the recent CEO transition to John Ternus adds execution risk. Traders weigh these catalysts against high multiples, potential supply constraints, and competition in AI hardware versus cloud-focused rivals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$5.00-$5.50T 30%
$4.50-$5.00T 27%
$5.50-$6.00T 15%
$4.00-$4.50T 10%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.50T
6%
$3.50-$4.00T
7%
$4.00-$4.50T
10%
$4.50-$5.00T
27%
$5.00-$5.50T
30%
$5.50-$6.00T
15%
$6.00T+
7%
$5.00-$5.50T 30%
$4.50-$5.00T 27%
$5.50-$6.00T 15%
$4.00-$4.50T 10%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.50T
$522 Vol.
6%
$3.50-$4.00T
$228 Vol.
7%
$4.00-$4.50T
$644 Vol.
10%
$4.50-$5.00T
$497 Vol.
27%
$5.00-$5.50T
$618 Vol.
30%
$5.50-$6.00T
$192 Vol.
15%
$6.00T+
$109 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s current valuation near $5 trillion reflects strong iPhone demand, China rebound, and services growth that propelled it past Nvidia earlier in 2026, yet the closely matched $4.5–5.5 trillion outcomes for year-end signal uncertainty over sustaining that momentum. The September launch of the foldable iPhone Duo alongside iPhone 18 Pro models with the 2nm A20 chip and enhanced on-device Siri AI capabilities introduces new hardware and Apple Intelligence features that could drive upgrades, but the recent CEO transition to John Ternus adds execution risk. Traders weigh these catalysts against high multiples, potential supply constraints, and competition in AI hardware versus cloud-focused rivals.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ET
Volume
$2,809End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s current valuation near $5 trillion reflects strong iPhone demand, China rebound, and services growth that propelled it past Nvidia earlier in 2026, yet the closely matched $4.5–5.5 trillion outcomes for year-end signal uncertainty over sustaining that momentum. The September launch of the foldable iPhone Duo alongside iPhone 18 Pro models with the 2nm A20 chip and enhanced on-device Siri AI capabilities introduces new hardware and Apple Intelligence features that could drive upgrades, but the recent CEO transition to John Ternus adds execution risk. Traders weigh these catalysts against high multiples, potential supply constraints, and competition in AI hardware versus cloud-focused rivals.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$2,809End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Apple’s current valuation near $5 trillion reflects strong iPhone demand, China rebound, and services growth that propelled it past Nvidia earlier in 2026, yet the closely matched $4.5–5.5 trillion outcomes for year-end signal uncertainty over sustaining that momentum. The September launch of the foldable iPhone Duo alongside iPhone 18 Pro models with the 2nm A20 chip and enhanced on-device Siri AI capabilities introduces new hardware and Apple Intelligence features that could drive upgrades, but the recent CEO transition to John Ternus adds execution risk. Traders weigh these catalysts against high multiples, potential supply constraints, and competition in AI hardware versus cloud-focused rivals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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