Recent monthly inflation data, including a 1.7% August print that marked the lowest reading in 14 months, combined with Central Bank REM analyst consensus around 30% for full-year 2026, underpin the market-implied odds favoring the 30.0-34.9% and 25-29.9% buckets. President Javier Milei’s administration has sustained fiscal surpluses and exchange-rate stability, supporting the disinflation trajectory from 33.5% year-over-year in August, though progress has moderated amid seasonal pressures and energy costs. Forecasts from the OECD at 30.8% and BBVA at 29% align with trader positioning, while lower-probability tails reflect risks from any reacceleration in regulated prices or external shocks. Key upcoming releases on September CPI and policy communications will likely influence further adjustments in these probabilities.